Thursday, March 30, 2017

Brexit - Leaving EU

The United Kingdom triggers off its break from the European Union on the 29th March 2017, with two years to negotiate by 2019.

The original intention for the UK to break off is to be able to control its own borders. Rapid immigration has put pressure on its public sector especially in housing, healthcare and welfare services. It is inevitable that with common borders, workers from poor countries flow to rich countries in search of jobs and a better life.

The UK is forced to take this extreme measure of breaking off between the EU does not allow member states to limit the number of immigrants, a direction that was pursued by David Cameron. The EU said, "No, you take the whole package and cannot pick and choose." This forced the referendum and the population voted to get out.

Those in the cities mostly voted to stay in while those outside the cities mostly voted to leave. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted remain, while England and Wales voted leave. As democracy is in the end reduced to a simple major rule, the leave wins which then leads to the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty yesterday.

The beauty of the EU is that it provides a common market for the goods and services of the EU member states. It may be envisaged that a mixture of rich and poor countries can provide all the necessary ingredients of a balanced and self-contained economy. As it turns out, capital does not easily flow to poor countries, but the people of poor countries easily flow to rich countries.

But why should the Europeans be so angry with the UK for trying to leave the EU, by being very difficult in the negotiation? After all, there is freedom and democracy in Europe and countries should be able to freely join or leave the club.

Maybe the EU is not a club, but like a religious grouping where once you joined you cannot leave with threats of tribulations.

The EU is a political grouping that is disguised as an economic club. While the immediate benefits are economic in nature, the ultimate purpose is to create a political entity that is a federation of member state that answers to a big brother in Brussels. The EU is an attempt by Europe to regain its former glory as a unified empire, in an apparent counter-force to Russia and China, and probably the US. Many say that EU has resulted in decades of peace in Europe.

If the EU were to break, then individual nation states may see themselves as vulnerable to attacks by their bigger neighbours, the biggest one being Russia. The EU can be seen as a continued ideological fight for democracy against the totalitarian state of Russia. In attempting to do, unfortunately, Brussels may have to act in a totalitarian manner with respect to their individual states.

Each European state may therefore have to choose to suffer in the hands of either friendly dictators or fearful enemies.

In trying to punishing the UK for leaving the EU, Brussels may be shooting its own foot. By destroying the UK economy, the EU may be destroying a potential ally in times of war should Russia decides to act. Putin is watching. Strategically, the EU should help and ensure that the UK be sound and strong so that they can collaborate politically if need be in future.

After WWI, Europe punished Germany by insisting on war reparations causing hardships to people and which led to the rise of Hitler and WWII. After WWII, the US supported Germany and Japan, the losers in the war, as economic giants so that they can be strong allies in times of war or to deter another war.

These are lessons that Germany should learn, when dealing with the UK.


walla said...

Brussels cannot afford to be nice to London if only to avoid other members from exiting knowing they will also be let off comfortably.

Otherwise the EU disintegrates piece by piece while still saddled by a radicalized immigrant polity on the one hand and an aging demographic on the other that has no recourse because the more educated the less reproductive.

walla said...

So what will happen to the UK? A, it clings harder to a more introspective but yet militarily belligerent US. B, it goes on its own and loses human capital funding that drives innovation. C, it forges stronger financial and technical pivots with the rising superpower, China.

And what will happen to the EU? With France consumed by its own gastronomic gut of immigrant unrest, and the other members too small to make a difference, Europe returns to Germany upon whose shoulders rests again the defence of Pax Europa.

This may therefore revive USSR nationalism in Russia which will need China to protect its east so that it can focus on its west while looking for through-routes from the Caspian Sea.

etheorist said...

This is the only way I communicate with walla. Sorry for the odd comment here.

walla, I have only just recently discovered the answer to your long-time mystery of why your links disappeared after submission - they were treated as spam by the system!

Probably because of the many symbols and signs used.

Unfortunately, I do not manage this blog well as I come in to write whatever inspired thoughts I have.

In future, whenever I do come in here, I shall check the spam section to make sure that your valued comments are not wasted in the bin!

Sorry and thank you.

walla said...

I suspected so too, etheorist. Hope that last bundle of links was retrievable.

walla comes here every day.


Alas, visitors won't be able to enjoy them as well.