Deduction & Inference

Most people take logic to be objective; but it is not necessarily so.

Logic is just another way of thinking. Logic is the basis for the advancement of science in recent times for humans.

Much of logic, as we know it, is called deduction.

Deduction means that you look at reality, the real world and examine what it is. Deduction tries to discover things as they are. To look hard at what is in front of our noses and what what it is. It is not what you imagine it to be. This is what it is, exactly like this.

Logic and science have a difficult birth in this current civilisation of ours. It was strongly opposed by the religious establishments that ruled the world at the time.

Religions are of great service to manking. Religions bring men and women to the spiritual side of life on earth.


But religious establishments, when they ruled the world, were political establishments. They laid down the rules and laws of how ordinary people should behave in their ordinary lives in order to be religiously correct, and hence politically correct.

All religions are founded on good common human values. Religions exist to make people humble, especially when their circumstances are capricious, when people cannot be trusted anymore. We act as nobodies, humble, unobtrusive, undamaging to others.

The problem with religious establishments is that they stagnant. They go back to the distant past to look for the source of the truth. From that truth, they try to identify the implications.

Inference is from the general to the particular.

Religious doctrines are inferred from perceived religious truth.

The danger of inference is that if the basic proposition is incorrect, then all the derivatives are false. There is a need to check on the basic proposition all the time.

There is inference in science. Once deduction has conclusion on a general proposition, that general proposition is then used as a basis for inference.

Some religious doctrines do get re-examined and revised. Some don't and they stick to what they want to believe.

In a lot of ways, political establishments work similarly to religious establishments. Political parties that constantly revaluate their missions will find themselves better align to the majority of the people. Political parties that rely on old ideas for longevity are fighting an uphill task trying to convince the majority of the people that their arcane ideas are still good.

There is that new trend from the business management gurus who say everybody, not just businesses, must have their visions and missions. This is jolly well and good if you are pursing your own personal jihad or crusade. But personal visions and missions may be at odds with the aspirations of society, especially when one thinks that one has the solution to all problems, and that is to eliminate others who stand in the way of one's vision.

The elimination of obstacles, rather than going round them, seems increasingly to be the way forward.

There is no more resourcefulness; there is now force.

The rise of militancy is now a global problem, caused by the expansion of the military complex supported by the printing of money. Weapons are now being exchanged for oil. Those with money and weapons now pursue higher level of goals, and that is spiritual fulfillment. They try to dominate others.

It is a fact generally accepted in economics that work makes people disciplined and circumspect and encourages respect for others who they have to trade with. Financial independence create arrogance, of people, of nations.

The overplay of the power of politics and religions is a dangerous thing for ordinary people. There is no mercy for people on the other side.

There is a need for discussion and consultation, which take longer time, but it will produce great benefit of understanding of each other, or how other people think and feel, and how we can all live together peacefully. These are simple truths, as fundamental as any religious truth, and which forms the basis of a tolerable life on earth.

Hurray, Not A Net Oil Exporter!

Hurray, it is time for Malaysians to celebrate. We are no more a net exporter of oil and gas as of 2014. So we are not adversely affected by the fall in the price of oil. In fact, we should consider ourselves lucky since our import bill for oil will be smaller, even if our currency is also taking a beating. After all, oil price fell sharper than the ringgit, didn't it.

That is why we must bring the benefit of the drop of oil price to the average consumer. All these greedy sellers are to blame for being so reluctant to cut retail prices when the price of oil drops, while they were very quick to raise retail prices when the price of oil at the pump rose.

Never mind imported inflation. It is only a small part of the economy. Not everything we consumer is imported. We are eat kangkong, right, all grown in the Cameron Highlands where we are now trying to catch illegal immigrants growing vegetables. We don't want illegal workers but we want food production to stay and if possible to go up.

Never mind about the fall in government revenue as the oil price drops. The government will continue to spend regardless. Now, as the government cuts spending by a little bit to stay within budget (?), the GDP growth will fall a little bit. A little bit is not a lot, right?

Forget about the GDP. The government is not a big player. That is why when the government has less revenue, the GDP will fall.

Focus instead on the private sector, the part of the economy that policy is trying to stifle. We are imposing GST on all businesses, as all businesses must register even if they do not qualify to pay GST. It is just one of our attacks on illegal businesses - illegal means not following the law. The government makes the law. The GST will have a little impact on prices. Who says the impact is a lot? In fact, the government thinks that retail prices may fall, because the GST replaces the SST who was a bad tax that the government had imposed on society for so long and nobody really saw that. At best, the impact of the GST on the public and the economy is very little. But the government hopes to collect only RM25 billion which is also not a lot. But good enough to solve the government's revenue problem - which is a little problem.

In fact, the private sector, whom the government always loves, should seize the opportunity of the low oil price and be more competitive and become world brands. Of course, other countries will experience the low oil price but they are not as good as us, right? Our policies are better and we are always looking ahead. We are pro-active. We know what is going to happen before it happens. That's why we remove the fuel subsidy even before the oil price drops. Even the fuel price drops without subsidy.

We have this big plan for the economy and the government is doing everything we can to make sure that the GDP number goes up. You don't have to do anything. Just sit back, relax, and pay your GST.

Everything is going to be all right.

You are all too pessimistic! Ours is such a lovely country!

(My way of chasing the silliness out of the old year.)

Racism & The Social Good

Everybody relies heavily on their ethnicity and background to identify themselves, to give themselves a sense of identity, a sense of belonging.

In everyday dealings, it is not unusual for people to refer to each other by their background or ethnicity, as a way of trying to place each other in context for further engagement.

Problems appear when insecurities come in.

If a race is afraid that they will be marginalised, they will call attend to themselves in order for some proactive solutions to be made to their particular benefits. This is on the assumption that society at large would not care for them. This may not be entirely true. But this assumption immediately brings into the picture a sense of victimisation. They want the government to institute "corrective" policies to help them.

When the government institutes correction policies on the basis of race, the government has introduced racism as a matter of state policy. State policy becomes racist. When racism is made "official", it becomes "acceptable" for politicians to become racist while denying they are racist because they really did not mean to be racist as racism has crept slowly but surely into his or her consciousness.

We are therefore vigilant that politicians who have influence of policies are enlightened as to what is good for society and that state policy must be good and beneficial for all citizens. We do not allow politicians to behave or speak without thinking about the larger implications for the whole society. Especially, when a section of society is being bamboozled for the benefit of another section.

It is difficult enough to try to help. But it is not acceptable to try to help by down others. The "proactive" racist policy of the state has turned into a blatant racist policy against a specific race. Not intentionally, but somehow an innocent policy has morphed into a mutation.

I would put the blame squarely on unenlightened politicians or wannabe politicians who are desperate for votes and use to race card to clinch their positions.

It in incredible to see in the country how policies are made consistently to exclude the participation of a genuine home-ground "non" group while at the same time welcoming foreigners of all kinds to invest and to work and to live. This explicit segregation is the elephant in the room. It does not help if the government of the day gives excuse for racists while asking those who are being victimised not to bring up the matter anymore.

The correct action is to sack the politician who made racist remarks.

It is not OK for politicians to garner support by playing the racist card. In day-to-day private conversations, race will be an inevitable subject for discussion as well as for sharing, especially on cultural matters. But race should not be a subject for public discourse or definitely not for policy.

GST: An Economic Blunder?

The imposition of the 6% GST on 1 April 2015 will raise the price of goods. If not, then the GST will not raise any money for the government. Unless the government is asking businesses to absorb the cost of the tax, a day dream.

The GST has already raised the cost of services, namely, restaurant dining. There used to be no service charges or taxes of any kind. We gave tips. Then hotels imposed a 10% service charge, probably because Malaysians are not good in tipping. Then came the SST (Sales and Service Tax) in 1975 and hotels charged 10% service charge and 6% service tax. Eventually, this practice was taken up by restaurants outside hotels. And, of course, the 10% + 6% are imposed even on top of the cost of tea, peanuts and towels which used to be the implicit tips for the workers of restaurants.

By a series of indirect taxes, the government has successfully raised the cost of living of the ordinary people.

Now, the GST even threatens to ruin the lives of small traders.

Let it be clear that the GST now gives absolute power to the Customs Department to prosecute anyone which has not registered their businesses for GST.

(This works the same way as the Inland Revenue Board to prosecute anyone working or doing business who are not registered for income tax.)

The upshot of this is that the GST registration exercise is more akin to a census on all businesses in the country. Of course, not all businesses will register, either out of ignorance or defiance. Like the Inland Revenue Board that can charge anyone for the evasion of income tax payment, the Customs can do likewise for businesses with regard to the collection of the GST.

Non-registration, in itself, is already a crime.

Then, they can look through your books to see whether your turnover is more than half a million ringgit a year. This is where the grey area comes in. The enforcement part.

The government hopes that by the introduction of a software (hopefully it works well under all scenarios), the problem of  managing the GST is only a push of the button away. Everything will process itself and magically the coffers of the government will bulge.

I am only very sorry for the thousands of small traders or businesses who used to survive quietly in oblivion who will now be living in fear of a prosecuting force that will comb through very nook and cranny for any potential unregistered GST offender or, if registered, compelled to collect the GST.

Should the GST programme fails to live up to its expectation of a revenue booster for the government, I fear the pressure to prosecute will be high.

All this because the government is too big, too inefficient, too spendthrift.

The government should not replace lost oil revenue with the GST. The government should downsize, be more efficient, and get out of business. The government should just ensure law and order and security of the nation. And take care of our children. Too much?