Monday, February 16, 2015

Hurray, Not A Net Oil Exporter!

Hurray, it is time for Malaysians to celebrate. We are no more a net exporter of oil and gas as of 2014. So we are not adversely affected by the fall in the price of oil. In fact, we should consider ourselves lucky since our import bill for oil will be smaller, even if our currency is also taking a beating. After all, oil price fell sharper than the ringgit, didn't it.

That is why we must bring the benefit of the drop of oil price to the average consumer. All these greedy sellers are to blame for being so reluctant to cut retail prices when the price of oil drops, while they were very quick to raise retail prices when the price of oil at the pump rose.

Never mind imported inflation. It is only a small part of the economy. Not everything we consumer is imported. We are eat kangkong, right, all grown in the Cameron Highlands where we are now trying to catch illegal immigrants growing vegetables. We don't want illegal workers but we want food production to stay and if possible to go up.

Never mind about the fall in government revenue as the oil price drops. The government will continue to spend regardless. Now, as the government cuts spending by a little bit to stay within budget (?), the GDP growth will fall a little bit. A little bit is not a lot, right?

Forget about the GDP. The government is not a big player. That is why when the government has less revenue, the GDP will fall.

Focus instead on the private sector, the part of the economy that policy is trying to stifle. We are imposing GST on all businesses, as all businesses must register even if they do not qualify to pay GST. It is just one of our attacks on illegal businesses - illegal means not following the law. The government makes the law. The GST will have a little impact on prices. Who says the impact is a lot? In fact, the government thinks that retail prices may fall, because the GST replaces the SST who was a bad tax that the government had imposed on society for so long and nobody really saw that. At best, the impact of the GST on the public and the economy is very little. But the government hopes to collect only RM25 billion which is also not a lot. But good enough to solve the government's revenue problem - which is a little problem.

In fact, the private sector, whom the government always loves, should seize the opportunity of the low oil price and be more competitive and become world brands. Of course, other countries will experience the low oil price but they are not as good as us, right? Our policies are better and we are always looking ahead. We are pro-active. We know what is going to happen before it happens. That's why we remove the fuel subsidy even before the oil price drops. Even the fuel price drops without subsidy.

We have this big plan for the economy and the government is doing everything we can to make sure that the GDP number goes up. You don't have to do anything. Just sit back, relax, and pay your GST.

Everything is going to be all right.

You are all too pessimistic! Ours is such a lovely country!

(My way of chasing the silliness out of the old year.)

3 comments:

Joe Black said...

What happens when the Oil Price Suddenly Goes up? (which is also possible!).

Will we also suddenly be a Net Oil Exporter?

hishamh said...

@Joe Black

No, we won't. I've seen the figures - Malaysian oil consumption is rising at a frightening pace.

Joe Black said...

So then it is more likely that PETRONAS will be unable to accelerate its marginal field production and other exploration activities to help replenish its supplies?

Then appointing a Downstream man to head PETRONAS may have been a mistake?