My apologies for the long absence. Various reasons. Two-month lab. Year-end holidays. Lots of work to catch up, just as everybody is busy trying to stay in the job and in business.
The demise of Whitney Houston is sad.
Would there be nice things for us to think about and discuss in the coming new year. So, should we be trying to add more salt to the rotten stuff.
Until some nice thoughts crop up, I am sorry that that I shall rather be drinking my beer, sipping my coffee, dipping into the books that I have lined up to read and the music database that I have to organise into a decent system.
The euro is going to break. China is struggling to rise again like an injury hero determined to show. US is brain-dead, chiding the Middle East. Japan is an old man. S Korea looks interestingly alive. Indonesia is rediscovering itself. Malaysia tries hard, unbelievably hard. Singapore refuses to succumb.
We'll see how the year will fare.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
The End of the Year (2011)
The end of the year is nothing but an idea
That time has an end and we should all be looking
Forward to it so that we can have a new beginning
Because the old year has been such a mess
And we hope that things will be different
When we symbolically throw away old things
That new things and new ideas will be better
Just simply because we merely want a change
Even if that change is nothing but the same old thing
As we hold on dearly to our same old habits
And feel comforted in our old familiar surroundings
Only our mind may have become a bit different
Now that we have made new mistakes this past year
And surely we will have become wiser in the new year
By not repeating the old mistakes but creating new ones
And so, the newness of our life is nothing but the same
That somehow has acquired a new beginning
But with the same old ending.
Alas! Accept.
That time has an end and we should all be looking
Forward to it so that we can have a new beginning
Because the old year has been such a mess
And we hope that things will be different
When we symbolically throw away old things
That new things and new ideas will be better
Just simply because we merely want a change
Even if that change is nothing but the same old thing
As we hold on dearly to our same old habits
And feel comforted in our old familiar surroundings
Only our mind may have become a bit different
Now that we have made new mistakes this past year
And surely we will have become wiser in the new year
By not repeating the old mistakes but creating new ones
And so, the newness of our life is nothing but the same
That somehow has acquired a new beginning
But with the same old ending.
Alas! Accept.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
The End Of The World?
Recent events around the world, as presented to us by television and the mass media, would give one the impression that the end of the world is near. How near?
Certainly the world ended for the many innocent and not so innocent killed in the Middle East thanks to the US and other military operations as well as by desperate attempts by despots to protect their little pots of honey. The end of the world seems to be closing in on some regimes are deemed to be totalitarian by their people. The best of luck to the despots and the people.
In Europe, the totalitarian of the euro as a single currency seems also to be at the brink of cracking with Germany and France desperately trying to shore up the broken finances of Greece and Italy. That's what you get when you have a lousy civil service that is not only bloated and not doing nothing but doing everything possible to stop the rest of the society from getting ahead. France is the next in line for exposure to sloppy financial behaviour although some say that it's troubles are tied to exposure to Greece and Italy, which is the same thing as bad behaviour isn't it.
I am quite taken by Obama poniticating about the problems of the world without mentioning the problems of the US itself which the American people having enjoyed and now suffering from years or decades of consuming the output of the world paid for by simply printing paper money. This is sheer abuse of its global leadership in monetary policy. I have said it before: Volcker did an excellent job, Greenspan abused it, thereby passing the global finacial baton to China bypassing Europe.
China, onced it has learned financial discipline and controlled domestic inflation, will go for domestic consumption by raising local wages and local agriculture prices and hence to sustainable prosperity through endogenous growth with imports for raw materials from the rest of the world, competing for natural resources around the world for its own internal consumption. Then, it enters an era of bloated Chinese.
Certainly the world ended for the many innocent and not so innocent killed in the Middle East thanks to the US and other military operations as well as by desperate attempts by despots to protect their little pots of honey. The end of the world seems to be closing in on some regimes are deemed to be totalitarian by their people. The best of luck to the despots and the people.
In Europe, the totalitarian of the euro as a single currency seems also to be at the brink of cracking with Germany and France desperately trying to shore up the broken finances of Greece and Italy. That's what you get when you have a lousy civil service that is not only bloated and not doing nothing but doing everything possible to stop the rest of the society from getting ahead. France is the next in line for exposure to sloppy financial behaviour although some say that it's troubles are tied to exposure to Greece and Italy, which is the same thing as bad behaviour isn't it.
I am quite taken by Obama poniticating about the problems of the world without mentioning the problems of the US itself which the American people having enjoyed and now suffering from years or decades of consuming the output of the world paid for by simply printing paper money. This is sheer abuse of its global leadership in monetary policy. I have said it before: Volcker did an excellent job, Greenspan abused it, thereby passing the global finacial baton to China bypassing Europe.
China, onced it has learned financial discipline and controlled domestic inflation, will go for domestic consumption by raising local wages and local agriculture prices and hence to sustainable prosperity through endogenous growth with imports for raw materials from the rest of the world, competing for natural resources around the world for its own internal consumption. Then, it enters an era of bloated Chinese.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Double Dip Or Fallout
It is sad that this has to happen but it has been obvious for a long time - that the structural break of the US economy is now firmly evidenced by the inability of monetary expansion to paper over. We should now expect deflation in the US as it has been in Japan since the early 1990s.
We cannot be thinking about marginal adjustments in the global economy. It is not as if the US economy is still structurally sound and that a sharp depreciation of the US dollar will correct its external imbalance which it doesn't have much relatively. With the rise of China (and India), the US (and Japan) collapses. Germany may hold, but the Euro may break.
The rise of China not only took away manufacturing jobs from the world, but competes with the rest of the world for food and resources. That a billion of Chinese now chooses not to go hungry means food production must rise by 1/6th or a billion people outside China must starve.
Central banks must reduce monetary expansion and direct the new expansion towards food production and away from real estate, stock purchases and credit cards.
Deflation is a needed adjustment after the sustained monetary expansion. This could put more people into productive work to increase output (especially food). This alternative has been viewed negatively as a rise in unemployment which is true in technically unprepared societies.
We cannot be thinking about marginal adjustments in the global economy. It is not as if the US economy is still structurally sound and that a sharp depreciation of the US dollar will correct its external imbalance which it doesn't have much relatively. With the rise of China (and India), the US (and Japan) collapses. Germany may hold, but the Euro may break.
The rise of China not only took away manufacturing jobs from the world, but competes with the rest of the world for food and resources. That a billion of Chinese now chooses not to go hungry means food production must rise by 1/6th or a billion people outside China must starve.
Central banks must reduce monetary expansion and direct the new expansion towards food production and away from real estate, stock purchases and credit cards.
Deflation is a needed adjustment after the sustained monetary expansion. This could put more people into productive work to increase output (especially food). This alternative has been viewed negatively as a rise in unemployment which is true in technically unprepared societies.
Monday, July 11, 2011
The Struggle For Power
It is quite interesting to observe how the struggle for power -potentially absolute power - can lead to very desperate acts.
We imagine that the struggle for political power - for Malaysia, and recently for South Sudan (congratulations!) - is made for the purpose of independence - to define one's own destiny - as opposed to be abused as an agent for someone's benefit which therefore all points to a common good that the people of a society can nurture for itself.
The greatness of George Orwell in his Animal Farm is how the objective of the struggle can metamorphosise from high level to more degraded levels. In South Sudan, we are hearing worries over tribal warfare and potentially huge economic survival issues at all levels. In Malaysia, we have descended from an inspired greater commonwealth to one of sectarianism. We have not done ourselves justice.
We thought we started with a fairly good institutional structure of checks and balances, but with a very big loophole in the shape of the Internal Security Act which allows the authorities to detain people without trial for 60 days plus 2 years - which unfortunately has been abused to kill dissent. As a result, the inherited institutional structure devolved into a lopsided one with the power accumulated in the hands of the very top. The question now becomes: How can this concentrated power be opposed or even disposed?
It is interesting to note that with the concentration of political power comes the concentration of economic power. "I say this is mine" and it is his or hers. This phenomenon is being justified as the building up of the war chests of political parties, which invariably is the war chest of the political party of the incumbent government and, by extension, of the few individuals who control everything. With that sense of power, it is extremely difficult to dream of fair play and a more balanced approach to how things can turn out in the future for our country and our people. Thoughts are likely to be focused on "how I can siphon the money out without being caught." (Those caught would be considered stupid and ostracized in order not to damage the whole branch.)
When things come to an extreme, how do we proceed as a country? We can continue to let the system squeeze the juice out of the economy and the strength of the people, inviting inflation to redistribute wealth from the very poor to the very rich through "rapid growth of the money supply and loans at low interest rates." This has been going on. "It is not our fault - it is imported global inflation, crop failures in other parts of the world." The nation stares and justifies as a bystander to this global drama.
There are those who figure that they may be able to provide a change - a breath of fresh air, so to speak. The great beauty of democracy is that everybody has a chance to try their hands at governing the nation. How can one claim to know more than another, except through long years of dictatorship which the modern world is trying to do away with. The answer is really to limit the term of tenure so that ideas do get rotated. Do not believe in dictators however benevolent they are making themselves to be - the world can always be a better place without them.
With flexibility and adaptability and room for change and hopefully improvement, the nation and society can evolve and adjust into an animal that is the product of no one person's mind but that of the facets of many people's views - rightly or wrongly. This is where the storytelling comes in for the nation. This is where the wise men and women and sages and prophets come in to guide the people towards redemption. Lest, we are all caught in the quagmire of our own conceit.
There is no mystery to why private investments here have tanked. It spells how much confidence we have in ourselves. We have abused ourselves, our own people, we have spit at each other. We do this because we still have the luxury of past wealth which is slowly being eroded by mismanagement. We are being arrogant.
The path out of this darkness is the light of trust and cooperation, of exerting our selves and making efforts to serve our neighbours by providing them with goods and services in return for what they can provide for what we need. Whether we should persist in what we are doing depends on the vote of society in the exercise of their right to decide what they want to want and do not want. It is the freedom of choice. It is the demonstration of revealed preference.
We imagine that the struggle for political power - for Malaysia, and recently for South Sudan (congratulations!) - is made for the purpose of independence - to define one's own destiny - as opposed to be abused as an agent for someone's benefit which therefore all points to a common good that the people of a society can nurture for itself.
The greatness of George Orwell in his Animal Farm is how the objective of the struggle can metamorphosise from high level to more degraded levels. In South Sudan, we are hearing worries over tribal warfare and potentially huge economic survival issues at all levels. In Malaysia, we have descended from an inspired greater commonwealth to one of sectarianism. We have not done ourselves justice.
We thought we started with a fairly good institutional structure of checks and balances, but with a very big loophole in the shape of the Internal Security Act which allows the authorities to detain people without trial for 60 days plus 2 years - which unfortunately has been abused to kill dissent. As a result, the inherited institutional structure devolved into a lopsided one with the power accumulated in the hands of the very top. The question now becomes: How can this concentrated power be opposed or even disposed?
It is interesting to note that with the concentration of political power comes the concentration of economic power. "I say this is mine" and it is his or hers. This phenomenon is being justified as the building up of the war chests of political parties, which invariably is the war chest of the political party of the incumbent government and, by extension, of the few individuals who control everything. With that sense of power, it is extremely difficult to dream of fair play and a more balanced approach to how things can turn out in the future for our country and our people. Thoughts are likely to be focused on "how I can siphon the money out without being caught." (Those caught would be considered stupid and ostracized in order not to damage the whole branch.)
When things come to an extreme, how do we proceed as a country? We can continue to let the system squeeze the juice out of the economy and the strength of the people, inviting inflation to redistribute wealth from the very poor to the very rich through "rapid growth of the money supply and loans at low interest rates." This has been going on. "It is not our fault - it is imported global inflation, crop failures in other parts of the world." The nation stares and justifies as a bystander to this global drama.
There are those who figure that they may be able to provide a change - a breath of fresh air, so to speak. The great beauty of democracy is that everybody has a chance to try their hands at governing the nation. How can one claim to know more than another, except through long years of dictatorship which the modern world is trying to do away with. The answer is really to limit the term of tenure so that ideas do get rotated. Do not believe in dictators however benevolent they are making themselves to be - the world can always be a better place without them.
With flexibility and adaptability and room for change and hopefully improvement, the nation and society can evolve and adjust into an animal that is the product of no one person's mind but that of the facets of many people's views - rightly or wrongly. This is where the storytelling comes in for the nation. This is where the wise men and women and sages and prophets come in to guide the people towards redemption. Lest, we are all caught in the quagmire of our own conceit.
There is no mystery to why private investments here have tanked. It spells how much confidence we have in ourselves. We have abused ourselves, our own people, we have spit at each other. We do this because we still have the luxury of past wealth which is slowly being eroded by mismanagement. We are being arrogant.
The path out of this darkness is the light of trust and cooperation, of exerting our selves and making efforts to serve our neighbours by providing them with goods and services in return for what they can provide for what we need. Whether we should persist in what we are doing depends on the vote of society in the exercise of their right to decide what they want to want and do not want. It is the freedom of choice. It is the demonstration of revealed preference.
Malaysians' Right To (MRT) Speak
The 9 July 2011 Bersih rally is significant. It shows clearly that the ordinary Malaysian citizen is now reduced to nothing but an ant for the authorities who is supposed to look after us to step on.
It is the fundamental right of a Malaysian citizen to raise his or her concern over any aspect of the nation. Not to do so is to fail in one's duty to serve the country. Does the government of the day think that after being elected into power it has the absolute power to do whatever it likes until the next election? Isn't there any recourse in the interim?
Is Malaysia still a democratic country, or is it now a dictatorship, or is it now a police state?
What happens to civil liberties? Or, don't the authorities do not understand any of these things anymore?
The recent event has shown that while the government of the day may put on a smiling face, it may not desist from using crude methods to prevent dissent. This is dangerous.
Of all the transformations that the government is trying to institute to get the economy into high income, I fear that the current transformation of civil society from a once proud society to dirt is probably the most potent and alas! the most dreadful.
Unpleasant it may be to the government of the day, it should have the good of society at heart to let the people demonstrate the seriousness of their call for a clean election, no matter how clean the government or the election commission may insist that it is. Truth will prevail. The recent event in Thailand how that truth will eventually re-assert itself, no matter how much it may be supposed.
I do not think that the government of the day is doing itself a service with its recent actions, with collusion from an authority which should have been more competent and professional in handling such a difficult situation. It is only when a situation becomes intricate that professionals are called in. We do not seem to have any.
Cry, my beloved country!
It is the fundamental right of a Malaysian citizen to raise his or her concern over any aspect of the nation. Not to do so is to fail in one's duty to serve the country. Does the government of the day think that after being elected into power it has the absolute power to do whatever it likes until the next election? Isn't there any recourse in the interim?
Is Malaysia still a democratic country, or is it now a dictatorship, or is it now a police state?
What happens to civil liberties? Or, don't the authorities do not understand any of these things anymore?
The recent event has shown that while the government of the day may put on a smiling face, it may not desist from using crude methods to prevent dissent. This is dangerous.
Of all the transformations that the government is trying to institute to get the economy into high income, I fear that the current transformation of civil society from a once proud society to dirt is probably the most potent and alas! the most dreadful.
Unpleasant it may be to the government of the day, it should have the good of society at heart to let the people demonstrate the seriousness of their call for a clean election, no matter how clean the government or the election commission may insist that it is. Truth will prevail. The recent event in Thailand how that truth will eventually re-assert itself, no matter how much it may be supposed.
I do not think that the government of the day is doing itself a service with its recent actions, with collusion from an authority which should have been more competent and professional in handling such a difficult situation. It is only when a situation becomes intricate that professionals are called in. We do not seem to have any.
Cry, my beloved country!
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Six Strategic Reform Initiatives (SRIs)
This latest set of initiatives is to wrap up the New Economic Model, with focus on trying to solve the problems of running a proper government machinery and correct the abuses of the past (or rather, the present). But somehow it lacks the Oomph! for the private sector - which I suppose the EPPs are suppose to be doing.
SRI 1: Public Finance: Increasing Revenue, Reducing Cost
+RM13 billion (contractionary on economy)
Improving tax administration
Rationalising corporate tax incentives
Transparent procurement
Control expenditure
Accrual accounting
Implement GST
SRI 2: Government's Role in Business
Since the government has a funding problem, the government will divest its stable of companies and will only be involved in business in strategic and "GNI-positive" areas:
Regional corridor developments
Procurement of defence technology, etc
Investment in "large growth capital, catalytic or new technology"
Biotechnology, renewable energy, public transport systems, etc
SRI 3: Human Capital Development for High-Income Economy
Minimum wage to be instituted
Talent Corporation to draw up a plan
Unemployment insurance to be introduced
To study labour market
Gender issues
SMEs workforce requirements
SRI 4: Public Service Delivery: Lean, Efficient, Facilitative Government
Remove overlapping processes
Standardise functions
Clear governance structure
Real-time performance monitoring
Real-time feedback rating mechanism
Greater public involvement in high level policy review
"Strategic human resources practices"
Open recruitment within civil service and public-private sectors
Enhancing "cross-moblility" by introducing "mobility characteristics" in new superannuation schemes and enhancing current pension scheme (meaning that civil servants can quit or be sacked halfway through their career and still get pension?)
SRI 5: International Standards and Liberalisation: Improving Malaysia's Competitiveness
Liberalisation of the services sector: healthcare, education, business services (professional businesses)
Standards
Competition law - to promote "competition, private investment and market dynamism" and safeguard against "anti-competition practices and abuse of market power"
SRI 6: Narrowing Disparities (Bumiputera SMEs): Capacity Building Boost
Develop Bumiputera SMEs
Promote wealth creation
Uplift low-income Malaysian households
TERAJU to "lead, coordinate, drive Bumiputera economic participation and to strengthen the Bumiputera development agenda"
High-Performance Bumiputera SME programme
Develop next generation of world-class Bumiputera entrepreneurs
To be able to compete in "open market without heavy reliance on Government contracts"
SRI 1: Public Finance: Increasing Revenue, Reducing Cost
+RM13 billion (contractionary on economy)
Improving tax administration
Rationalising corporate tax incentives
Transparent procurement
Control expenditure
Accrual accounting
Implement GST
SRI 2: Government's Role in Business
Since the government has a funding problem, the government will divest its stable of companies and will only be involved in business in strategic and "GNI-positive" areas:
Regional corridor developments
Procurement of defence technology, etc
Investment in "large growth capital, catalytic or new technology"
Biotechnology, renewable energy, public transport systems, etc
SRI 3: Human Capital Development for High-Income Economy
Minimum wage to be instituted
Talent Corporation to draw up a plan
Unemployment insurance to be introduced
To study labour market
Gender issues
SMEs workforce requirements
SRI 4: Public Service Delivery: Lean, Efficient, Facilitative Government
Remove overlapping processes
Standardise functions
Clear governance structure
Real-time performance monitoring
Real-time feedback rating mechanism
Greater public involvement in high level policy review
"Strategic human resources practices"
Open recruitment within civil service and public-private sectors
Enhancing "cross-moblility" by introducing "mobility characteristics" in new superannuation schemes and enhancing current pension scheme (meaning that civil servants can quit or be sacked halfway through their career and still get pension?)
SRI 5: International Standards and Liberalisation: Improving Malaysia's Competitiveness
Liberalisation of the services sector: healthcare, education, business services (professional businesses)
Standards
Competition law - to promote "competition, private investment and market dynamism" and safeguard against "anti-competition practices and abuse of market power"
SRI 6: Narrowing Disparities (Bumiputera SMEs): Capacity Building Boost
Develop Bumiputera SMEs
Promote wealth creation
Uplift low-income Malaysian households
TERAJU to "lead, coordinate, drive Bumiputera economic participation and to strengthen the Bumiputera development agenda"
High-Performance Bumiputera SME programme
Develop next generation of world-class Bumiputera entrepreneurs
To be able to compete in "open market without heavy reliance on Government contracts"
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